Chhattisgarh in the balance, 2nd phase of polls today 

RAIPUR: Battleground Chhattisgarh is proving a needle contest. If the vote is about chief minister Raman Singh, BJP could be home and dry. But if polling centres around local corruption and discontent with "kamal chaap" netas, Congress may score an upset win, derailing Singh's hat-trick bid.

The second-phase of voting for 72 seats in north Chhattisgarh on Tuesday will help settle the BJP-Raman Singh duality and reveal if an aggressive Congress, fancying its chances of disrupting a two-term saffron reign, can pull off a famous victory.

The closeness of the contest can mean the 18 seats of Bastar-Rajnandgaon that polled on November 9 could have a decisive bearing on the outcome in this state with a large tribal population battling a persistent Maoist insurgency.

From dusty Bemetara-Mungeli to the industrial Surajpur-Raigad-Janjgir to the verdant Sarguja, the popular sentiment reflects support for Congress. But the reason BJP is in the hunt for top honours is because rage against local corruption and leaders is muted when the discussion turns to Raman Singh.

BJP is banking on the goodwill the avuncular Singh seems to enjoy. "The conduct of local MLA Punnulal Mohle is poor but we are for Raman Singh," volunteered a shopkeeper at Padao Chowk in Mungeli. The verdict on the food and civil supplies minister's rustic style ought to have sealed Mohle's fate, but for the Raman effect.

Yet, support for Raman Singh is up against a palpable exasperation with local leaders. "Five more years and they will go berserk," is a common sentiment in the streets and village gatherings as the wages of a 10-year incumbency manifest themselves.

It is Raman Singh's high rating with the masses that appears to have pushed Congress to target him in the last fortnight of the campaign, questioning him about several scams under his watch, from Balco to Pushp Steel to 10 lakh ghost ration cards.

Congress likes to believe it has done enough but there is no dearth of sympathizers who wonder why the party kept silent on Singh for the last five years. Conspiracy theorists talk about senior leaders preferring to keep a line open with Singh.

The CM's claims of having reduced corruption and implemented an effective health insurance scheme will face a stern test, as voters weigh his efforts against having to put up with unpopular local leaders.

Perhaps feeling the pressure, BJP has betrayed nerves in the last lap. The sudden junking of the "referendum on Raman" in favour of scaring voters with the return "Ajit Jogi as Congress CM" has strengthened the perception that BJP has been assailed with some doubts.

With Jogi a prominent presence on the Congress bench, BJP's decision to saturate the public space with his controversial 2000-2003 tenure is a smart ploy but is seen as a defensive move, in the wake of its strong projection of Raman Singh as a development man committed to tackling Maoists.

For the squeaky clean image that Raman Singh manages to retain, Chhattisgarh polls across the winding and tortuous roads are about corruption and 'commission', reinforcing the message that state polls are fought and decided largely on local factors. The common gripe against the ruling camp's patronage network is, "Those who rode bicycles now have Boleros".

Displacement over land acquisition for mines and power plants is an issue in villages across Akaltara, Janjgir, Raigad and again, the ire is directed at local leaders.

The magical Rs 2/Re 1 rice scheme that saw Raman Singh metamorphose from CM to "chanwurwale baba" is interesting. While it remains a feather in his cap, people are convinced that no party would be able to junk this subsidy and do not fear its discontinuance if he is ousted.

Additionally, a desperate Congress has virtually promised the moon to undercut Singh's 'Santa Claus' image.

But despite the dust and heat around him, Raman Singh remains "above the fray", a "bhola bhala chehra (innocent face)" for the vast majority.

And that is BJP's door to victory. If Raman Singh was assailed by self-doubt and brought BJP's prime ministerial candidate Narendra Modi and Jogi into the frame, it's a gamble that can cut both ways.